SOURCE: Mariners trading Luis Castillo would "Suck real bad, man"

What, exactly, makes you think you're built for this, Mariners?

It’s Friday here at Light Bat HQ, and with less than two weeks until Christmas you could say things are - to put it in the parlance of the Seattle Mariners - “experiencing an acceleration towards us finding very little room in our calendar for writing, depending on how the market shakes out.”

It’s not solely that the kids’ activities multiply exponentially seemingly every year, it’s that each activity is a sort of Russian Nesting Doll of further tasks and responsibilities for you, the parent. Imagine Steve Jobs’ famous “One more thing” bit, but for you having to find a white elephant gift within the next 90 minutes or Christmas will be ruined forever. As always, while being a father is the singular joy and most soul-filling experience of my life by a wide margin, the Official Light Bat stance on procreating remains: Do not.

This preamble is to apologize that today will be a bit choppy around these parts. I am going to be short and to the point regarding the recently-reported rumors that the Mariners are, at least to some extent, “shopping” starting pitcher Luis Castillo.

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1. Trading Luis Castillo would qualify as a move, something strictly and in no uncertain terms not-advised by The Official 2024-2025 Offseason Plan. #NoMoves, folks.
   
   

2. The Mariners traded for Castillo on July 30th, 2022. Since that date here’s where he ranks in MLB in various categories.
   
   Innings Pitched: 12th
   Strikeouts: 6th
   Quality Starts: 10th
   fWAR: 13th
   BB%: 12th
   K%: 7th
   FIP: 13th
   xFIP: 12th
   ERA: 8th
   
   Plenty of pitching metrics are flawed and individually struggle to convey pitcher quality. However, when taken in whole the picture seems clear and, crucially, aligns with watching the games. Luis Castillo has been something like a Top 10 MLB starting pitcher since coming to Seattle. The overall excellence of Seattle’s rotation (and arguable superiority of rotation mates Logan Gilbert and George Kirby) may dull the effect but does not reduce the accomplishment. Any case for or against trading Castillo has to start with accepting this simple fact: He is very, very good and has been practically his entire time in Seattle. Trading him would leave a significant hole in the roster.
   
   

3. Since we’re just stating simple facts at the moment let’s do another one: Luis Castillo’s contract is extremely team friendly! Three years and $72 million dollars is a minor commitment for a 32-year old starting pitcher with a track record of excellence. Max Fried, only two years younger than Castillo, just signed an eight-year deal worth more than $200 million! That contract is going to get George Kirby and Logan Gilbert’s agent to lose Jerry Dipoto’s phone number! Bryce Miller’s agent would do the same except Bryce Miller’s agent is an armadillo and does not own a phone. His name is Alberto. He dips and wears chaps at all times. He’s a great hang.
   
   The Mariners do not like to spend money and, per the current rules of baseball and MLB, will need a pitcher to start precisely 162 games every season. The idea of trading a very good one you already have under contract for well below market rates simply does not wash.
   

   
   

4. “BUT WAIT YOU NINCOMPOOP”, I can hear you say. “The Mariners should trade Luis precisely because of the value that contract has in the market! The roster is imbalanced and they need bats!”
   
   A fair point, person-I-just-made-up-to-argue-with. The Mariners do have a lot of really good starting pitchers. What they don’t have, at least in my opinion, is the kind of organizational depth that makes me comfortable with the idea of trading arguably the best starting pitcher they have. Emerson Hancock is Fine. You could wring High-Potency Whelm from him all season, I am sure. Logan Evans exists, reportedly. Uh, that’s about it.
   
   In the end this comes down to whether you think whatever Seattle adds to the positional side is likely to offset what they give up in a Castillo trade. I do not think they will be getting a positional player of comparable talent to Luis, or one even particularly close. This is not to say it’s impossible, but I do not believe in this front office’s ability to identify, acquire, and nurture such an addition. You can disagree, and that is fine. People are wrong about stuff all the time, and I see the appeal for you.
   
   ADDITIONALLY, a trade of Castillo theoretically frees up previously-committed money to go out into the market to further bolster the lineup. My question is: For who!? 34-year old Christian Walker? Does he seem like the type of profile to break this front office’s streak of identifying the exact worst moment to acquire a given positional player and then immediately acting to acquire them?
   
   Further questions: Why would any offensive player with practically any other suitor choose the Seattle Mariners as a place to play unless the Mariners are offering 10-20% over the market? What on earth makes you think the Mariners would ever make such an offer? There is a very likely outcome in which trading Luis Castillo results in a theoretically exciting but ultimately disappointing return, the team signs Carlos Santana, fails to sign Roki Sasaki, all resulting in a worse and cheaper roster than last year.
   
   Luis Castillo is an excellent major league baseball player under contract for an extremely reasonable sum. And he’s already on the team! The Golbergian-contraption of things that will need to go right in just such a way and in just such a sequence to make trading him lead to an improved team in 2025 is preposterously unlikely to occur. If you must forsake God and do moves, please do so without ridding the roster of its precious few in-house good players.
   
   

5. This is such an exhausting way to view and treat baseball players, man. Trading your last two major pitching contracts two years after they’ve signed is a red flag for any player considering coming here, and as a fan the experience is hollowing. The Mariners are not alone in doing this, of course. The Guardians, Rays, Brewers, and a handful of other teams ask their fans to accept that every good player on the roster will be flipped for cheaper/younger talent the second they show the slightest stagnation or decline in ability. Those teams, however, reward their fans with regular contention, division titles, and even the occasional World Series appearance. The way they work is soulless, defeating, and needlessly cynical but at least they are good at it. Flags fly forever, as they say.
   
   The Mariners have not been, and are not, good at it. They have no flags. They used a terrifically-scouted and developed, borderline-generational farm class to rocket through the first 90% of a rebuild faster than anyone (including themselves) expected. They have since spent the last three seasons wholly out of inertia, slowly tottering backwards down the hill towards .500 due to the austerity of their ownership, and the mediocrity of their executive class. Trading Luis Castillo offers no signal that any of that is changing. It says they’re out of ideas, and looking to cut costs. Don’t do it, please. Do not trade Luis Castillo.

*It’s me, by the way. I’m the source mentioned in the headline