The Light Bat's 2024-2025 Offseason Plan
It's time to whiteboard flipping some paradigms
Welcome to The Light Bat’s 2024-2025 Offseason Plan for the Seattle Mariners. Before I get into the vision of my plan I want to provide some context by examining recent organizational history, as painful as that may be. While we would all obviously love for the Mariners to operate like the Dodgers, Phillies, or a handful of the sport’s other elite teams, they simply will not do that. Let us begin.
A WINTER FOR CROWS (2022-2023)
The 2022 Mariner season produced the organization’s greatest baseball achievements in a generation. Buoyed by a midseason trade for a legitimate big league star in Luis Castillo, infused with the fresh talents of Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby, and steadied with the veteran performances of Mitch Haniger, Eugenio Suarez, and Carlos Santana, the roster that finished the 2022 season was as complete and competitive as any in Seattle since 2001.
With Raleigh’s iconic home run off the foul pole clinching the team’s first playoff appearance in decades the Mariners entered the offseason with unprecedented momentum and a chance to entrench themselves as one of MLB’s most exciting and watchable teams. With many of the team’s best players well under 30 and under contract for years, a payroll well below league average, and a plethora of star talent hitting the free agent market, the time had finally come for the Mariners and their long-suffering fans.
The Mariners’ tentpole acquisitions were as follows:
-Teoscar Hernandez. A quality major leaguer with a track record for power, Hernandez was woefully miscast in Seattle’s expansive home park and sparsely-talented lineup. He hit .258/.305/.435 with the Mariners, easily his worst offensive season since 2019. After the team declined to extend him a qualifying offer he spent 2024 in Los Angeles, where he immediately reclaimed the hitting form he showed from 2020-2022 while winning a championship with the Dodgers.
-Kolten Wong. A dependably average major leaguer is a wonderful thing to have, and for years that perfectly described Wong. The Mariners - who notably nearly signed Wong as a free agent in 2021 before balking at adding an extra year to his contract - instead took on that extra year in trade. It went horribly. At age 32 Wong’s skillset required precious little degradation to make him thoroughly unplayable, and degrade that skillset did. He hit an impossibly-bad .165/.241/.225 (37 wRC+!) in 67 games as a Mariner before his release. He did not play in a major league game in 2024, and his playing career is most likely at an end.
-AJ Pollock. See Wong, Kolten. Pollock was another longtime usefully-average player, particularly due to his aptitude hitting lefties. He was brought in to do precisely that and, at 35, washed off the roster within 49 games thanks largely to hitting a face-meltingly bad .173/.225/.323 (52 wRC+!). He did not play in a major league game in 2024, and his playing career is most likely at an end.
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In the interest of fairness I will not cite Tommy LaStella as a significant addition, although you could be confused by that as he was in fact the 2023 Mariners’ Opening Day Designated Hitter. The team struggled in the first half as the weight of these struggling veterans led to cascading issues with the offense. While they did rebound with a strong August they ultimately withered down the stretch, missing even the expanded playoffs by a single game as they watched divisional rival Texas win the World Series with a roster anchored by big-money free agents.
A HARVEST OF SHADOW (2023-2024)
After the Festival of Stepping Upon Rakes that was the 2023 season the Mariners needed a strong offseason last winter to recapture the (obviously) fragile trust of their fans. With, again, an exciting and promising combination of young positional stars and a rotation among the best in the sport, even an offseason of mildly underwhelming lethargy could have potentially put Seattle back in the playoffs.
You already know how this goes but I do not care. This newsletter is free, there are currently 57 minutes of daylight per day in the PNW, and I must subsist in the darkness upon the pain and misery of others. Here are the team’s primary additions last offseason:
-Mitch Haniger. A (rightfully) beloved Mariner due to both his excellent stretches of play and connection to an era of Mariners baseball filled with some of the organization’s greatest players of all-time, 2024 Mitch Haniger was not a major league quality baseball player. He wasn’t really expected to be, as he wasn’t a major league quality baseball player in 2023 and is well over 30. That said, the Mariners signed Robbie Ray to a five-year contract before 2022 and the thought of paying that to completion cast a pall upon minority-owner Chris Larson’s fifth masquerade ball of the winter, so off he went to San Francisco, and Mitch returned.
Haniger hit .208/.286/.334 and moved in the field like a man whose body has been through hell, which it has. He is under contract for 2025, and I think that is just terrific.
-Jorge Polanco. After back-to-back seasons of trying to fill the second base position with aging, non-elite veterans on short-term deals, the Mariners boldly switched things up by acquiring Polanco, an aging, non-elite veteran on a short-term deal.
(This is the part where the skies darken, my eyes turn, black, I raise my arms forward and am possessed by a being from beyond, who through me speaks the ancient, sacred words)
Polanco had the worst season of his career for the Mariners, hitting .213/.296/.335. The team declined his option, and will look for a new second baseman in the upcoming season. We will see if they turn to an aging, non-elite veteran on a short-term deal.
-Mitch Garver. A part-time and injury-prone catcher, Garver leveraged a career year in 2023 with the World Series Champion Texas Rangers (a real, true thing that occurred) into a multi-year deal with the Mariners who, after years of re-imagining the floor of production at the DH position, at long last acquiesced to the notion that a roster spot specifically designed solely for hitting could be well-served by a player who was good at hitting. This is growth, and we must acknowledge it as such.
It didn’t work, of course. Lol holy crap did it ever not work. Garver’s 140 wRC+ in 2023 plummeted to 88 in 2024 with a triple slash of .171/.286/.341. By the All-Star Break Garver’s role had morphed from full-time DH to backup catcher. He is under contract for 2025, and I think that is just terrific.
-Gregory Santos. It’s fair to wonder if any non-closer can be considered a key acquisition so I grant Santos represents an edge case. That said, with Matt Brash being struck down by God for being too cool, Santos was a vital figure in attempting to restock a Mariner bullpen that over the years has helped the team overcome the chronic condition of not having very many good baseball players.
Unfortunately he did nothing of the sort, or really much of anything as he struggled with various injuries throughout the season, appeared in only eight games, and appeared increasingly translucent as the season wore on, giving credence to the theory that someone had traveled back in time and prevented his parents from meeting, thus slowly erasing him from existence. Given that outcome, gotta call this one an L.
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The 2024 Mariners benefitted from an atrocious division and a historic stretch from their excellent starting rotation to rocket to a 10-game lead by June 18th, only to see that lead entirely evaporate by July 19th, a stretch of just 24 games. Another incredibly bad offseason led to cascading offensive failures, an ever-tiring and over-burdened rotation, and a miserable summer that saw longtime manager Scott Servias fired. Despite a rally of quality play in September the Mariners missed even the expanded playoffs by a single game, losing the division to their hated rivals the Houston Astros.
THIS ALL SUCKS AND I HATE YOU FOR REMINDING ME PLEASE TELL ME THE PLAN TO MAKE SURE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN AGAIN
Extremely fair. I just spent more than 1300 words spinning you through two of the most frustrating seasons in franchise history. I am sorry. I hated them too. I felt it was important though, because now I can lay out the case for this offseason. And here it is:
Nothing.
Do. Nothing.
No moves! No acquisitions! No gods no trades!
Consider the following:
According to the early projections of the highly-respected ZiPS system the Mariners roster is already at or near the win level mandated by ownership, AKA “Keep folks interest until the NFL kicks off”. In a league that prizes efficiency above practically everything else there is no justification for all the effort, travel, and cell phone data expended to create something that very well may already be created. I understand they have airline miles they don’t want to expire, but still.
The Mariners roster improving will hinge largely upon the continued health of its starting pitchers, 1-2 prospects taking a developmental leap, and Julio Rodriguez becoming an MVP-level player for an entire season. No moves the Mariners realistically make will change any of that, and in fact if history serves may make the task more difficult.
The Mariners’ response to the trials and tribulations of the past two years’ agonizing near misses has been to, uh, well not really change much of anything. All of the people who made all of those decisions are still here, charged with making all of the same decisions (and are in fact ever-more promoted. Some are saying it’s the most promoted front office in history. Well deserved. Go Biz). With a decade of evidence indicating that this group has precious little aptitude at identifying and acquiring the pieces necessary to build a truly excellent roster, there is certainly no need to potentially cripple the offense with further additions.
Maybe Ben Williamson is great! Maybe Ryan Bliss finally pops! Dylan Moore is a Gold Glove Award Winner already on your roster and is 32 sure but whatever! Edgar Martinez is Going to Fix It! Dan Wilson fills the Lutheran void that has held this organization back for decades! Victor Robles’ 2024 was very real and I know that because if it wasn’t then that would be very bad for 2025! The starting rotation will stay extremely healthy and productive!
Even if none of these things are true, I have zero belief in the ability of the front office to effectively anticipate and account for these potential shortcomings, and I cannot see why anyone would think otherwise.
The 2025 AL West looks to once again be one of the least competitive in the league. The Mariners already possess a roster that will win exactly 90 games with good fortune. There is no need to tax themselves and us further with acquisitions sure to only have me write this same article in 12 months citing the various disasters and calamities that could have been avoided had they simply put the phone on Do Not Disturb and enjoyed the holidays with their loved ones.
Trust in yourselves, Mariners. Honor the work already done. Rest. It’s time. Do not make any moves in the 2024-2025 offseason.