Charting Vibes: The Outfield
Data is vibes, vibes is data. A circle. All good things. Feeling the flow.
Happy Friday! Today The Light Bat is going to start previewing the roster for the 2025 Mariners season. For this exercise we are going to return to our good friend The Vibe Compass. As a reminder: The plots on the compass are, as it says in the name, based on vibes. I have been writing about baseball on the internet for almost 15 years now, and as such have consumed my fair share of data and analytics. As such the vibes will absolutely be influenced by numbers, but it’s important to clarify that when the vibes and data conflict, vibes are going to win out. That’s just the way it is. Ok? Ok! Let’s get going!
The 2025 Mariners’ outfield is, without debate or hesitation, the strongest positional group on the roster. For the purposes of being entertained you want dudes on the top half of the compass, and for the purposes of winning baseball games you want dudes on the right half. The Mariners have numerous players on both halves, with only a few stragglers in the unsavory sections. Let’s take a closer look player-by-player, starting with the pillar upon which this all rests: Julio Rodriguez.
Julio
The career of Julio, three years in, is becoming a bit of a Rorschach Test. Do you see a generational talent capable of posting 4-win seasons in years where he runs a batting line of .254/.304/.359 through the first half of the season? Do you see one of the game’s elite defensive centerfielders; a player with the speed to steal 40 bases and cause havoc on-base? Do you see someone who has made the effort to present and comport himself in a positive, fan-friendly manner every step of the way despite being the loadstone for the entire franchise since the age of 17? Do you see a young man who has been a Top 15 player in the league since his debut, with the potential and talent to be a multiple-time MVP?
Alternatively, do you see a player prone to prolonged and deep slumps at the plate? Do you see someone whose offensive profile has, if anything, steadily eroded the longer he has been in the league? Do you see a young player struggling with baffling and horrifically-timed gaffes on the basepaths? Does the veneer of his public persona smack you as something that has been carefully crafted in a marketing lab, and that you don’t actually know anything at all about who Julio Rodriguez actually is? Do you think, maybe, deep down Julio doesn’t really know who he is? He’s just 24 after all.
Well, you’re right. Julio is all of those things. He is the greatest positional player this team has had since at least Robinson Cano, and the best they have developed internally since Alex Rodriguez (the greatest player to ever wear the uniform). As he approaches his theoretical prime it was hoped that Julio would have already cemented himself as one of the very, very best players in the game by now. The Mariners’ preposterously cowardly and risk-averse ownership/management almost certainly would not have given him the contract they did if they didn’t believe he would be exactly that. As it stands, he’s somewhere between good-great, depending on how (or if) he’s hitting.
In year 10 (cries) of the Jerry Dipoto/John Stanton Era it’s clear the Mariners will never act with intent and focus to build a top 5 MLB roster. No player is capable of overcoming that deficiency like Julio. He has 9-10 win potential. It’s on us (and me) to not look upon him as a failure if he doesn’t get there, because he’s already such a wonderful player.
Victor Robles
/to the tune of “How Do You Solve a Problem Like Maria?”
Well he was free
And loves Jerry
His bat went on a tear
He cured the M’s teamwide morass
By playing laissez faire
And be it dong or dribbler
He very clearly cared
Victor was an asset to the Mariners!
His baserunning can baffle
But his tools are very real
He busted in Bad Washington
His contract is a steal
It’s weird to get to say it
But I very firmly feel
Victor is an asset to the Mariners!
The sample size is small again by half
But the monkeys makes me laugh
How do you plot a guy like Victor Robles?
How do you project such great big ups and downs?
What’s a career that smacks of Victor Robles?
Jose Cruz Jr.!
Leonys Martin!
Ackley!
Many a thing you’d like to know about him
Is his success built on the shifting sands?
His career makes me confused
Prospect status is old news
But by ZiPS he’s a key cog in the great plan
Oh how do you plot a guy like Victor Robles?
How do you hold a mantis on your hat?
Rando Arozarena
A very rare Jerry Dipoto Mariner in that Randy is probably cooler than he is good, he nonetheless most likely represents one of the best left fielders in the nearly 50-year history of the team (my apologies if this smacks of Al Martin erasure). He was, at least by wRC+, basically exactly the same hitter in Seattle he has been the majority of his career.
Arozarena is the kind of rock solid, 2-3 win positional player that good teams have, and I’m overjoyed that he’s a Mariner. He also brings an air of DGAF to this organization that is desperately needed in this clubhouse of (I say lovingly) earnest try-hards. In a perfect world his subpar defense would be relegated to a primary DH role but the Mariners are already set at that position*. He is never going to be the best or second-best player on a championship contender but, in fairness to them, he’s not being asked to be that on the Mariners.
*Playing a bad player a lot of money
Dominic Canzone
Luke Raley
[Ed’s Note: I’m aware the Mariners plan is to use Luke at first base in 2025 however he is still listed as an outfielder on the 40-man roster, which is the basis for this construct]
Raley ascribes to the Wile E. Coyote principle of “You can’t fall down until you realize you’re not standing on anything.”. In a season that saw the narrative of T-Mobile Park’s offensive-killing properties reach new levels of histrionic heights, Luke quite literally hit them with the “That sign can’t stop me because I can’t read” by posting one of the great offensive seasons in Safeco/T-Mobile Park history.
Forget park adjustments for a minute. Raley slugged .559 at home in 2024, the second-highest home slugging percentage of any Mariner in the Safeco/T-Mobile era (min. 100 PA). His 166 home wRC+ was second only to 2002 Edgar Martinez’s 170 (This is where you mutter in shock “By the power of Ibanez, he’s right!”).
For my money Raley was the best 2024 Mariner position player. After being benched in April for Dom Canzone (see above) he was the one player who seemed impervious to marine layers, death fogs, bad vibes, and the slow, miasmatic death that was last year’s lineup. He hit the hell out of the baseball last season, and I am excited to see him do it again in 2025.
ADDITIONALLY he is built like an Uruk-Hai, can travel by day, and covers great distance at speed.
Mitch Haniger
It may seem unfair to plot one of the best Mariners of the past 10 seasons completely outside the bounds of the Vibe Compass on the plumes of the trail of condensation left in the wake of overhead aircraft. It might seem undignifying, even as he approaches what is almost certainly the end of his playing career, to so disrespectfully treat a player who has been a leader for this organization, a model to young players, and someone who has overcome a litany of health problems to have by all accounts an outstanding major league career.
It’s true, too. Mitch really has had an outstanding run after getting a very late start. No matter what happens in 2025 I’ll always be happy he was able to grab a decent payday, and for fans with fond memories of his first run in Seattle I’m glad he gets to more-than-likely close things out here.
So, after all that, why the unique position on the Compass? Well the answer is that I like to think of myself as a bit of a free thinker. You see, I won’t be constrained by the false limits that the compass tries to put me in. My mind is bigger than that. I’ve done my own research on where Mitch Haniger should go, and read some stuff that would blow your mind. You probably can’t handle the truth and that’s why you hide, safe in the playpen that Big Graph wants you in. That’s alright. You’re a good little sheeple. All I ask is that you respect my decision, and my right to form my own opinion. I thought this was America, after all.